Evictions to hit 750,000 households, Goldman says
The findings that Goldman released mark one of the first comprehensive estimates of what could happen in the absence of the eviction moratorium.
About 750,000 renter households will likely lose their homes this year after the Supreme Court blocked the federal eviction moratorium, according to Goldman Sachs economists.
Analysts at the investment bank estimate that tenants owe between $12 billion and $17 billion to landlords as Covid-19 cases surge, with about 2.5 million to 3.5 million households behind on rent.
The findings that Goldman released late Sunday mark one of the first comprehensive estimates of what could happen in the absence of the eviction moratorium, which was stopped as state and local governments continued to experience bottlenecks in the delivery of $46.5 billion in federal rental assistance.
Given the slow pace of rental aid disbursement, Goldman's analysts expect that between 1 million and 2 million households will remain without support and at risk of eviction when the remaining state and local eviction bans expire at the end of September. The economists based their findings on rent delinquency data from real estate companies, the National Multifamily Housing Council and the U.S. Census Bureau.
“The strength of the housing and rental market suggests landlords will try to evict tenants who are delinquent on rent unless they obtain federal assistance,” the Goldman analysts said. “And evictions could be particularly pronounced in cities hardest hit by the [pandemic crisis], since apartment markets are actually tighter in those cities.”
Democratic lawmakers have called for congressional action in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to halt the ban late Thursday, but it’s unlikely they will be able to muster the votes to craft their own eviction moratorium. The Biden administration is turning its attention to putting pressure on state and local governments to shield tenants.
Just over 10 percent of federal rental assistance funds had been disbursed by the end of July, according to the Treasury Department. The sluggish delivery of aid has prompted affordable housing groups to complain that the programs have been too focused on fraud and to accuse governors and mayors of bias.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Attorney General Merrick Garland and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Marcia Fudge urged governors, mayors and county executives to enact their own eviction bans in letters on Friday. The Cabinet secretaries also pressed the officials to work with courts to require landlords to apply for emergency rental assistance before evicting and to pause eviction proceedings while applications for aid were pending.
Just six states and the District of Columbia currently have their own eviction bans in place, and another 10 states have enacted some form of tenant protections as they distribute aid. In states without protections, courts are likely to be flooded with eviction filings in the coming weeks.